Fan In Van

50/50 Situation

It’s the eve of the unrestricted free agency period and I’ll admit that I’m a little nervous.

If you had asked me what I thought of the Sedin twins chances of re-signing with the Vancouver Canucks before the NHL draft, I would’ve told you that I thought the chances were around 70%. But now that the annual draft has come and gone with little talk between Mike Gillis and the twins, it seems apparent now that the likelihood of keeping the Swedish playmakers in Vancouver is 50/50.

This much is clear: The Sedins want to stay in Vancouver. This is the only city they’ve ever called home throughout their nine-year career. However, while loyalty is certainly a reason to stay, the Sedin twins don’t want to stay for cheap, and they don’t want to stay for anything less than a long period of time. Word is the boys want a 12 year contract around the neighbourhood of $63M, which is the type of contract you only offer franchise players.

And once again we have to re-visit how badly the Canucks want the twins to stay in town. Since the post-lockout period, the twins have shown they are more than capable of being first-line players, as they have seen their point totals skyrocket since becoming the go-to guys. Last season they both put up 82 points in all 82 games, demonstrating that they’re reliable point-per-game players who are both durable and creative down low. They’ve established themselves as prominent NHL players as well; since the lockout, the twins are among the top 15 scoring leaders, behind only the ilk of the Crosbys, Thorntons, Iginlas and Zetterbergs. And that’s good company; only elite level players can put up those numbers, and only elite level players are deserving of such long-term contracts.

But there are a number of concerns regarding the apprehensivity of locking up the Sedins. First off, there are two of them. One player, let alone a franchise player, at around $5.25M is good. $5.25M is peachy. But there are two of them, and that means the other is $5.25M.

Now let’s make a comparison here. Combined, the Sedin twins account for 164 games played and 164 points for one point per game. In Anaheim, the two top players, Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry, account for 159 games and 163 points for 1.02 points per game; close enough to call it even. Perry and Getzlaf’s salaries see them both make $5.325M per season, which is quite close to the Sedins’ contract demands. Is it fair to say, then, that the Sedin twins’ proposed salary is reasonable?

Perhaps the salaries are justified, but that leads me to the next concern: the length of the term. It doesn’t matter which way you slice it; twelve years is a long, long time. The Sedin twins are 28 now, which means by the time their contract expires they’ll be 40, and I have a hard time comprehending whether or not they’ll be as effective at that ripe old age.

And then there’s the proposed Plan B: Marian Gaborik and company. If all else fails in negotiations, Mike Gillis has no problem making a contract offer to Marian Gaborik, who with all respect to the twins is more dynamic and has a higher scoring potential. Gaborik is likely seeking a contract worth around $6M per season, which means the Canucks would have another $3M to $4M with which to seek another top-six forward. Could Mats Sundin be had for that price? The question a lot of Canuck fans must ask themselves is would they rather have the reliable and durable twins, or the high-risk, high-reward players in Gaborik and Sundin?

It’s an unenviable position that Mike Gillis is in right now. He’s made it crystal clear he’d love to have the Sedin twins return. But he’s no fan of the contract length, and neither am I. If management can get the twins to come down from their 12 year demand to say six to eight years, then there’ll be no problems getting pen to paper. But the Sedin twins will most certainly wait until July 1st to see what other teams have to offer. They would be wise to do so; there will be a handful of teams willing to oblige to their demands.

50/50, folks.